This blog provides a short analytical commentary of the NI Budget announced on 25th April 2024, and makes the case for why a Programme for Government needs to be prioritised in efforts to achieve sustainable public finances.
The difficulties in setting a budget were known long before yesterday. In many ways the UK Government set up the NI Executive for much of the criticism it is receiving. This is because Northern Ireland’s current funding per head allocation is below that what is needed to provide public services on par with England. This has been the case for a number of years. How far below, or for exactly how long this has been going on, you might be surprised to know we are in the dark on.
But that is why in the announcement of the Budget we heard First Minister Michelle O’Neill, Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly and Finance Minister Caoimhe Archibald emphasise the importance of the forthcoming negotiations with the UK Government on our fiscal settlement.
This is important, and in the longer run is of greater importance. Getting into place a fiscal framework which addresses current underfunding and our ongoing funding needs to ensure that Northern Ireland can provide public services in a sustainably financed manner is the only show in town.
But to end just there would let our politicians off the hook. They could simply do nothing and then blame their failure of the lack of further fiscal support on the UK government.
If we are to deliver on sustainable public finances we need a plan for sustainable public services. i.e. a programme for government.
One of the most significant elements of this budget was the allocation to the Department of Health, which was less than the £1bn sought by its minister. In the budgetary announcement it was stated that it was not sustainable for health to eat up more and more of the budget year on year. This is absolutely true. It is clear that we have to transform health. We know this, and many of the things that need to be done are outlined in various reports including the NI Fiscal council Nuffield paper. A programme for government could set out a roadmap to achieving these goals.
But seeking to achieve transformation by just saying ‘you’ve got your fair share’ and thinking that this will force transformation ignores the complexity and cross-departmental changes which are required to transform health. The reasons for the massive increase in health spending do not lie solely in the health service. Social welfare, housing and education all have a role to play here. To actually transform health we need the Executive to lead from the front in a whole of government approach..
A programme for government should identify priorities for public services and also areas for transformation. Taking this approach would make our case much more convincing when we enter into negotiations with the UK Government on funding needs.