Today’s furlough statistics show that about 30,000 workers in Northern Ireland remained furloughed at the end of August, split evenly between full- and partial- furlough.
With these figures, likely to be representative of the numbers on furlough as the scheme closed we should expect to see a rise in both underemployment and unemployment in next week – and next month’s labour market statistics. A large proportion of those who remained fully-furloughed right to the end of the scheme are at high risk of unemployment. Those who have remained on partial-furlough are likely at risk of continuing on reduced hours, but without the furlough scheme topping up their wages to 80% of their pre-pandemic level.
With the High street voucher scheme due to bring a big boost to the hospitality/retail sectors in the months ahead un- or under employment is unlikely to be an issue for these sectors, but it is in the, often unspoken about sectors, – the ‘administration and support services’ or ‘other service’ sectors that we are likely to see problems take hold as we are yet to see the ‘return to the office’ en masse.
Commenting on today’s CRJS statistics Senior Economist Dr Lisa Wilson said ‘Whilst unemployment is a worry in the months ahead, underemployment needs to be as much a concern. As it is those who work part-time who are most likely to rely on the universal credit system to top up their earnings from work, the parallel drop in universal credit alongside the end of furlough means that this cohort of workers will need particular support in the months ahead to deal with the collapse in income and subsequent cost of living challenges that they are likely to face’.