Revisions to UK GDP Growth

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The ONS yesterday released the third estimate of GDP figures for the first quarter of 2013 where growth was revised down from 0.6% to 0.3%. The revisions to recent historical data also erased the "double-dip" recession that was thought to have occurred in in the first quarter of 2012. Growth in 2012 Q1 was revised up from -0.1% to 0.0%, a stagnation as opposed to contraction. The ONS report is here


The ONS also revealed revisions to its GDP figures for 2008 showing a much larger fall in national income at that time. Simply put, the crash was much worse than we thought. This also means that the UK economy is now 3.9% below its pre-crisis peak rather than 2.4% as previously reported. This has significant implications for the productivity puzzle currently affecting the UK economy. This was covered in the most recent NERI In-Brief here.

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Paul Mac Flynn


Paul Mac Flynn is co-director of the Nevin Economic Research Institute and is based in the Belfast office. In addition to managing the Belfast office he has co-responsibility for the NERI's research programme and for its strategic direction.  

He leads on the NERI’s analysis of the Northern Ireland economy along with all research into the impact of the United Kingdom‘s departure from the European Union. Other research areas include regional productivity, the all-island economy and the future of work.

He is a graduate of University College Dublin with a BA in Economics and Politics and the University of Bristol with an MSc in Economics and Public Policy, specialising in the economic impacts of political devolution in the UK.

Contact: [email protected] or 00 44 28 9024 6214.