Has long-term unemployment turned the corner?

In the first quarter of last year long-term unemployment as a share of total employment peaked at 64% and is on a downward trend. The latest evidence from the Quarterly National Household Survey the number of long term unemployed fell by 19,600 (in Q4 2012 compared to Q4 2011).

So has long-term unemployment turned the corner? Unfortunately, the Quarterly National Household Survey also shows the labour force shrinking by 18,000. Though one can't be certain, it appears that the long term unemployed are becoming discouraged and leaving the labour market.

The soon to be released Spring Quarterly Economic Facts will contain more data on long-term unemployment.