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NERI Seminar: How accurate and useful are forecasts of Irish economic performance?

17 October 2012, 4:00pm - 5:15pm

The NERI (Nevin Economic Research Institute) will hold a seminar on Wednesday 17th October 2012 entitled 'How accurate and useful are forecasts of Irish economic performance?'

The NERI seminar series aims to provide a forum for the presentation of research papers on topics of relevance to Irish public policy (North and South) and will take the format of a presentation of the research (25-30mins) followed by a questions and answers/discussion (30-40mins). The series will continue through to June 2013.

The seminars are open to all who are interested and are free to attend.

Details of the next seminar are:
Time: Tea and coffee from 3:50pm; seminar commences at 4pm


Speaker: Dr John Bradley, Economic Modelling and Development Strategies (EMDS), Dublin.



Abstract: At a time of continuing domestic and international uncertainty, economic knowledge and strategic thinking in Ireland are even more necessary than they were in more stable times. The ability to anticipate likely future performance of the economy is a vital aspect of designing appropriate crisis coping strategies. This takes two interrelated forms. First, simply to forecast the future on the basis of what we know with certainty about yesterday, what we think we know about today, and what we can anticipate about tomorrow. Second, to be able to explore how such forecasts might be affected by shifting patterns of behaviour in the global economy, domestic policy changes, and other structural alterations.

We describe how and by whom forecasts are prepared for Ireland, distinguishing between the short term (up to 18 months) and the medium term (longer than 18 months). We then describe how the EC HERMIN model of the Irish economy can be used for forecasting and policy analysis and discuss what the results suggest about the nature of Ireland's economic recovery.

Keywords: macroeconomic models, forecasts, Ireland.

A copy of the paper can be downloaded from http://www.herminonline.net/

 

To register your interest in attending and for further details please e-mail info@nerinstitute.net

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