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Posts in the "Macroeconomics" category

Growth in Northern Ireland not what it seems

Posted on December 12, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

The latest figures for Gross Value Added in Northern Ireland were released yesterday by the Office for National Statistics. Gross Value Added is the closest measure to Gross Domestic Product we have for Northern Ireland, it is equal to Gross Domestic Product plus subsidies and minus indirect taxes. However it is derived from the calculation of National Accounts for the United Kingdom and as such many of the components represent Northern Ireland shares of overall UK activity. None the less it is a key economic indicator used by policy makers and others in determining the health of the Northern Ireland economy. The statistical release from the ONS showed Northern Ireland GVA increasing by 1.2% in 2012. However, this is not the full story.

 

GVA

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Permanent link | Categories: MacroeconomicsNorthern Ireland

UK Autumn Statement fails to tackle underlying problems

Posted on December 05, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

In the Autumn Statement today the Office for Budget Responsibility has upgraded forecasts for growth in the UK economy from 0.6% to 1.4% for 2013. Furthermore they have upgraded forecasts for 2014 and 2015 to 2.4% and 2.2% respectively. While much attention has focused on the speed of the UK recovery, the composition of any such recovery matters just as much. The first point to make is that while GDP growth appears to be growing again, it follows a long period of stagnation from mid-2010 to mid-2013. The absence of growth for nearly 3 years means that the level of UK GDP is still some 2.5% below its pre-crisis peak. Fiscal austerity smothered the beginnings of a recovery in 2010, and the UK economy is only now experiencing what by historical standards is modest GDP growth.

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Permanent link | Categories: Government SpendingJobsMacroeconomicsNorthern Ireland Taxation

Anglo-Irish Bank is dead. Long live its debt?

Posted on December 02, 2013 by Tom Healy

Tom Healy, Director NERI - Tom Healy, Director NERI
Tom Healy, Director NERI

Not that bank again! Much has been said and written about Anglo-Irish in the context of the banking collapse in 2008 and the sequence of historical events that takes us from the night of the Big Guarantee on 29th September 2008 (or perhaps a modern version of Oíche na gaoithe moiréWhen the Anglo-Irish Promissory Note deal was announced on 7th February 2013 many thought that this would be largely the end of the anguish associated with one zombie bank’s debt which accounted for approximately 20% of GDP because there would be:

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Permanent link | Categories: Macroeconomics

A welcome (if modest) increase in employment

Posted on September 02, 2013 by Tom Healy

Tmp Jobs

The publication, recently, by the Central Statistics Office of results from their Quarterly National Household Survey for the year to June 2013 has provided a welcome respite to the generally negative employment news since the beginning of 2008. Employment is now increasing across most sectors and occupations, both in full-time and in part-time employments. Notwithstanding very disappointing results for GDP in the first quarter of this year (see NERI Quarterly Economic Observer of Summer 2013) an increase in employment is welcome. In summary, the number of jobs is up by 34,000 in the year to June 2013, the numbers unemployed (as measured by ILO definitions) is down 22,000 while the numbers in the workforce (including the unemployed) is up by 16,000). The total estimated population is up slightly. Could this be the turning point? Could the austerity zealots be right after all?Doubtfully. A number of factors weigh on the Irish economies, North and South:

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Permanent link | Categories: Government SpendingInvestmentJobsMacroeconomics

Ireland and Europe's FTT Proposal

Posted on August 26, 2013 by Micheál Collins

In the context of the recent international financial crisis, one principally derived from the reckless speculative behaviour of numerous banking and financial corporations, the long-term hesitancy towards a financial transactions tax (FTT) tax has begun to thaw.

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Permanent link | Categories: MacroeconomicsTaxation

Positive growth, but no cause for celebration

Posted on July 26, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

GDP - UK GDP Q2 2013
UK GDP Q2 2013

The UK economy posted its second quarter of positive growth yesterday, and many have heralded the beginning of a long awaited recovery. However, while some growth is better than none, some perspective is needed before one starts popping champagne corks.

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Permanent link | Categories: MacroeconomicsNorthern Ireland

Budget 2014: Some Tax Options

Posted on July 15, 2013 by Micheál Collins

On Saturday last, July 13th, Claiming Our Future held a conference in Corke Park to consider the options and policy choices for Budget 2014. As part of the conference, I presented some options on taxation - my slides are available here. In it I argued that the Budget should focus on growth and recovery and adopt a more growth friendly approach to making the €3.1bn adjustment planned for this October.

The presentation is available here.

 

Permanent link | Categories: MacroeconomicsTaxation

Revisions to UK GDP growth

Posted on June 28, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

The ONS yesterday released the third estimate of GDP figures for the first quarter of 2013 where growth was revised down from 0.6% to 0.3%. The revisions to recent historical data also erased the "double-dip" recession that was thought to have occurred in in the first quarter of 2012. Growth in 2012 Q1 was revised up from -0.1% to 0.0%, a stagnation as opposed to contraction. The ONS report is here

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Permanent link | Categories: JobsMacroeconomicsNorthern Ireland

We need a change of course and we need it now

Posted on June 27, 2013 by Tom Healy

Tom Healy, Director NERI - Tom Healy, Director NERI
Tom Healy, Director NERI


While caution is always advisable in examining the latest quarterly data, the release by the Central Statistics Office of the latest quarterly national accounts was something of a wake-up call to those eager for news of a recovery. The Republic of Ireland is in a deep stagnation. The downturn has lasted longer than any period of recession since the 1950s, here. A further contraction in personal consumption and investment in the first quarter of this year confirms a downward trend apparent in the second half of last year. This is disappointing but hardly surprising given the impact of austerity abroad and at home.

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Permanent link | Categories: Government SpendingInequalityInvestmentMacroeconomicsTaxation

The Productivity Puzzle and Northern Ireland

Posted on June 10, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

InBrief June 2013

Over the last two years, the UK economy has experienced stagnating output growth alongside increasing total employment. This counter-intuitive situation has come to be known as the "Productivity Puzzle". Northern Ireland has experienced a similar dynamic over the last two years. There is no agreement among researchers as to what may be causing this situation or whether it is a permanent or temporary feature of the economy.

This in-Brief seeks to examine the many possible causes of the productivity puzzle, their likelihood and to what extent thy apply to Northern Ireland. Whether this trend continues or not, it does pose some very important questions about the state of the domestic economy and how it may evolve in the near future.

 

The latest NERI In-Brief is here

 

Permanent link | Categories: MacroeconomicsNorthern Ireland

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