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Posts in the "Government Spending" category

Fiscal Stimulus, Unemployment and House Prices

Posted on May 16, 2013 by Micheál Collins

Publication cover - McQuinn_Kelly_NERI_2013 - Cover image for McQuinn_Kelly_NERI_2013
Cover image for McQuinn_Kelly_NERI_2013

The latest NERI seminar, from Kieran McQuinn and Robert Kelly of the Central Bank, examined the relationship between unemployment and house prices and used this relationship to examine the impact on banking defaults / mortgage defaults of economic growth. Modelling a fiscal stimulus of €2b, they estimated that bank defaults would decrease by about €660m; a saving to the state in either reduced future bank capital injections or refunds from current capital provisions. Combined with the ESRI estimated multiplier effect, where the cost to the economy of €2b stimulus is just under €1.3b, the research points towards the real cost of an investment stimulus in Ireland today. Ignoring that this investment would be in beneficial projects which would in any event pay for themselves over time (generally these are examined over a 20 year time period), the short term cost would be about €350m for every €1bn of stimulus.

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Permanent link | Categories: Government SpendingJobsMacroeconomics

Public sector clerical workers paid below the OECD average

Posted on May 13, 2013 by Rory O'Farrell

OECD comparison of clerical worker pay - OECD comparison of clerical worker pay
OECD comparison of clerical worker pay

Comparing wages of public sector workers across countries poses many difficulties. Nevertheless the OECD publishes some useful information.

In 2009 public sector clerical workers were paid below the OECD average. This is the latest available data (more timely data should be available in June). The OECD make adjustments for differences in working time and for the cost of living.

Since 2009, due to pay cuts, it is likely that clerical workers have fallen further down the international pay league.

More information on international pay comparisons can be found in the latest edition (Indicator 3.2a) of the NERI's Quarterly Economic Facts.

Permanent link | Categories: Government SpendingIncomeLabour costs

Republic of Ireland’s economic outlook remains challenging

Posted on April 10, 2013 by Micheál Collins

Publication cover - QEO Spring 2013  - Cover image for QEO Spring 2013
Cover image for QEO Spring 2013

The Nevin Economic Research Institute has published our latest Quarterly Economic Observer (Wednesday 10th April). In it we outline our latest set of projections for the Republic of Ireland economy. These suggest a period of low-growth and high-unemployment for the next three years and include:

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Permanent link | Categories: Government SpendingMacroeconomics

Conference highlights Ireland’s Unemployment Crisis

Posted on November 13, 2012 by Micheál Collins

On November 12th the NERI hosted a conference focused on Ireland's unemployment crisis. Over a series of papers the nature of the current crisis and the possible solutions to the problem were examined. The papers and presentations for the conference are now available on the NERI website.


In my own paper, the following were the key points:


Overall Summary

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Permanent link | Categories: Government SpendingIncomeInvestmentJobsMacroeconomics

Budget 2013 and onwards: choices and consequences

Posted on October 30, 2012 by Micheál Collins

The Society of Saint Vincent DePaul launched their pre-Budget document entitled 'The Human Face of Austerity' on Thursday October 25th. At the launch I spoke about the choices government have as they compile Budget 2013 and reflected on some of the context and consequences of these choices for workers and families in Ireland.


The SVP document, available on their website here, complements much of the research I am colleagues have been engaged with over the past few years on minimum living standards for Ireland. The NERI working paper on the Cost of Work provides a good overview of that research and its findings.


The slides from the seminar are here. The key points raised were:

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Permanent link | Categories: Government SpendingIncomeInequalityMacroeconomicsTaxation

The Government has a choice

Posted on September 25, 2012 by Tom Healy

Tom Healy, Director NERI - Tom Healy, Director NERI
Tom Healy, Director NERI

Our research shows that Government has options this December. Instead of €3.5 billion in fiscal adjustment, we argue for €2.7 billion of which €2.3 billion are revenue measures aimed at high-income households. Aside from savings under the Croke Park agreement we do not see any value on grounds of fairness, macro-economic impact and budgetary savings in cutting yet further into education, health and social protection. Any savings from particular headings or sub-headings should be conserved and used to maintain and improve front-line services. We urgently need an investment stimulus starting with €500 million ‘off the books’ next year and a cancellation of a further cut in the public capital programme earmarked by Government for 2013. Our proposals which we refer to as Plan B would: - Leave the government deficit at the same level as planned and targeted by government - Employment 21,000 higher than under Plan A - Growth higher by 1.3% next year compared to baseline Department of Finance projections.Budget 2013 should be the first step in an alternative economic approach to change Ireland for the better.

Permanent link | Categories: Government SpendingJobsMacroeconomicsTaxation

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