Posts from "Tom McDonnell"

Tom McDonnell

Tom McDonnell is Senior Economist at the NERI and is responsible for among other things the NERI's analysis of the Republic of Ireland economy including risks, trends and forecasts. He specialises in economic growth, economics of innovation, Irish and European economies, and fiscal policy. He previously worked as an economist at TASC and before that was a lecturer in economics at NUI Galway and at DCU. He has also taught at NUI Maynooth.

Tom obtained his PhD in economics from NUI Galway. He is a native of Limerick city.


Context for Budget 2019: A Long-run Focus

Posted on September 17, 2018 by Tom McDonnell

Publication cover - Context for Budget 2019_Long_Run_Focus
This presentation gives the NERI perspective along with some facts and figures in advance of Budget 2019.

Posted in: InequalityMacroeconomicsTaxation

A Household net wealth tax for the Republic of Ireland.

Posted on August 07, 2018 by Tom McDonnell

Scrooge McDuck
Is a wealth tax on net households assets worth over €1 million feasible? Is it desirable? I discuss these issues in the latest NERI inBrief which can be found here. Many of the core principles for net wealth tax design are outlined in an earlier NERI/TASC Working Paper which can be found here. The main 'takeaway' is that introducing such a tax in the Republic of Ireland is more than feasible …

Posted in: InequalityTaxationIncome

Short-term outlook is good but stormclouds ahead - time to prepare the ship

Posted on August 03, 2018 by Tom McDonnell

foggy drive
The NERI’s 26th Quarterly Economic Observer came out this Wednesday. You can find the release here and accompanying slides here. Outlook We examine the trends and short-run outlook for both Irish economies. The short-run outlook for the Republic of Ireland economy is very positive. We project real GDP will grow by 5.8% in 2018 reflecting our expectation that the cyclical upswing will continue …

The productivity problem - We need to invest

Posted on April 21, 2017 by Tom McDonnell

Unoccupied Industry
For most economists the sources of productivity, innovation and technological progress are almost co-extensive with the central question of economics - what is the source of the wealth of nations? Unfortunately productivity growth has been on a generally downward in the advanced economies for close on 40 years. A recent blog on the Focus Economics website shows clearly this downward trend in …

Posted in: IncomeInvestment

Outlook for the Irish Economy: Trends, Projections and Storm Clouds

Posted on March 28, 2017 by Tom McDonnell

Social Housing Ireland
Trends In recent years Ireland’s headline national accounts have become increasingly distorted by multinational activity. Indeed the distortion is now so pronounced that it has become difficult to interpret Ireland’s economic performance and cyclical position using aggregate indicators. Even so, it is clear that the real economy has been growing strongly despite Brexit related headwinds and …

Posted in: Macroeconomics

Innovation Inputs, How does the Republic of Ireland Compare?

Posted on February 01, 2017 by Tom McDonnell

Lego bricks
The Republic of Ireland’s industrial and enterprise strategies will have to evolve in the future to adjust to changing political, economic and technological realities. One constructive step that the Irish government can take to future proof its economy is to renew its focus on innovation policy with a view to building a world class innovation system. Technological change and innovation have …

Posted in: Government SpendingInvestment

Productivity and Innovation are the only things that can drive Long-run Growth

Posted on January 26, 2017 by Tom McDonnell

The world is changing and Ireland’s industrial and enterprise strategies will have to evolve if we wish to thrive in this new reality. One constructive step that the Irish government can take is to renew its focus on innovation policy with a view to building a world class National System of Innovation. Technological change and innovation have long been of fundamental interest to economists …

Posted in: Government SpendingInvestment

An Irish Wealth Tax

Posted on December 21, 2016 by Tom McDonnell

Scrooge McDuck
2017 promises to be a year of change with Brexit and Trumponomics gathering pace with diffcult to predict outcomes. One thing remaining constant is that the fiscal space available for Budget 2018 will remain tight and that discretion for current and capital spending increases and tax cuts will be limited. The fiscal council estimate that the carry-over cost of measures introduced in Budget 2017 …

Posted in: InequalityTaxation

Private Sector Wages

Posted on November 29, 2016 by Tom McDonnell

Collective Bargaining
The Republic of Ireland's economy has been on a strengthening arc for the last four years with a narrowing output gap and GDP growth expected to exceed 4% in 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 7.3% in November which is is less than half of the great recession nadir of over 15%. Total employment is still down 125,000 compared to 2007 but has increased steadily since early 2012 with almost 200,000 …

Posted in: Labour costsWages

External shocks - change the detail but no need to rewrite the productivity playbook

Posted on November 04, 2016 by Tom McDonnell

The vulnerability of the Republic of Ireland economy to external shifts and shocks was brought home in 2016 in at least two ways. While the potential Brexit from the European Union (EU) has unclear political implications, it has almost certainly negative economic implications. At the same time, the opening shots of an international or at least EU clamp down on aggressive tax avoidance has exposed …

Posted in: Government SpendingInvestmentMacroeconomics

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