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Posts from "Paul Mac Flynn"

Paul Mac Flynn

Paul Mac Flynn is a senior economist at the NERI specialising in the Northern Ireland Economy.

He is a graduate of University College Dublin with a BA in Economics and Politics and the University of Bristol with an MSc in Economics and Public Policy, specialising in the economic impacts of political devolution in the UK.

Having previously worked in financial services he is now based with NERI in Belfast.

Productivity matters for everyone

Posted on January 18, 2018 by Paul Mac Flynn

In recent years one economic trend in particular has become increasingly important for policymakers across most western economies and that is productivity. It has become such a significant issue because while most other economic metrics eventually began to recover following the 2008 crash, productivity has remained stubbornly weak. In simple terms productivity is a measure of how efficiently …

Posted in: Government SpendingInvestmentWages

Interest Rates: Don't move too soon

Posted on November 01, 2017 by Paul Mac Flynn

Interest rates have been making the headlines in recent weeks, as speculation mounts about a possible change in policy this Thursday. In the UK the Bank of England base rate has been at an all-time low for almost 10 years. Monetary policy has been very loose since the Great Financial Crash of 2008, not only in the UK but around the world. Low interest rates were also supplemented by a process of …

Posted in: Northern Ireland Wages

The Absence of Devolution - The Economic Costs

Posted on July 19, 2017 by Paul Mac Flynn

As the deadline of the 29th of June passed without the establishment of a new Executive, it looks as though Northern Ireland may be in for a long period with no devolved government. Quite how long this interregnum will last is in the realm of political speculation, but it does have important implications for our economy. Much has been made of the fact that, as a consequence of the failure to form …

Posted in: Government SpendingNorthern Ireland

UK Spring Budget. The calm before the storm

Posted on March 08, 2017 by Paul Mac Flynn

In what will be the UK's last Spring Budget, earlier today Philip Hammond gave what could only be described as a lacklustre financial statement to the House of Commons. There were moves to increase funding for Social Care and a small reversal of the increases to Business rates in England. At UK level, there as an increase in National Insurance for the self-employed but also an increase in tax …

Posted in: Government SpendingNorthern Ireland Taxation

QEO - The Implications of a Hard BREXIT for Northern Ireland

Posted on December 06, 2016 by Paul Mac Flynn

Brexit image
The Winter 2016 Quarterly Economic Observer was released this morning and it provides the NERI's analysis recent economic trends and the outlook for both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. We highlight the signs of decelerating growth in the Republic along with concerns about recent budgetary measures particularly in the housing sector. For Northern Ireland, the relative stability of …

Posted in: JobsNorthern Ireland

Autumn Statement 2016

Posted on November 23, 2016 by Paul Mac Flynn

The Autumn Statement delivered by the new chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond is the first substantial financial statement made by the government since the BREXIT referendum result in June. Naturally the referendum and its consequences featured heavily in the announcements, but it is still clearly too early to make any definitive forecasts for the longer term. The Office for Budget …

Posted in: Government SpendingLiving wageNorthern Ireland Wages

Northern Ireland and the Living Wage in 2016

Posted on November 04, 2016 by Paul Mac Flynn

Last week the 2016 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings for Northern Ireland was released and some interesting results emerged. The largest increase in wages was bottom 10% of employees reflecting a welcome boost from the introduction of the National Living Wage. However, the National Living Wage should also not be confused with the real Living Wage, for which the latest rate was announced last …

Posted in: Living wageNorthern Ireland Wages

The National Living Wage - What will it mean for Northern Ireland

Posted on March 30, 2016 by Paul Mac Flynn

50p
The National Living Wage of £7.20 will come into force from tomorrow across the UK for those aged 25 and over. This new minimum wage rate will amount to an automatic increase of 50p per hour for the coming financial year and it is set to rise to £9 per hour by 2020. There has been much discussion of how workers and businesses will be affected by the NLW and this is particularly important for …

Posted in: JobsLiving wageNorthern Ireland Wages

UK Budget 2016 - Ominous Revisions

Posted on March 16, 2016 by Paul Mac Flynn

Today's statement in the House of Commons marked George Osborne's eighth budget in just under six years as Chancellor. Whilst there were many eye-catching policies such as a tax on sugary drinks and reforms to ISAs, they could not distract from some major revisions to UK economic growth. The Office for Budget Responsibility cut their forecast of UK GDP growth in 2016/17 to 2%, down from 2.4% …

Posted in: Government SpendingMacroeconomicsNorthern Ireland Taxation

Social Housing in Northern Ireland

Posted on March 03, 2016 by Paul Mac Flynn

Publication cover - NERI Research inBrief Housing
Social housing in Northern Ireland faces unique challenges over the coming years in terms of capacity, finance and delivery. Moreover there are questions over the structure of organisation who deliver social housing and how that could be amended to best suit future needs. This InBrief looks to evaluate current social housing policy and whether Northern Ireland should look beyond the UK for best …

Posted in: InvestmentJobs

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