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Posts from "Paul Mac Flynn"

Paul Mac Flynn

Paul Mac Flynn is a senior economist at the NERI specialising in the Northern Ireland Economy.

He is a graduate of University College Dublin with a BA in Economics and Politics and the University of Bristol with an MSc in Economics and Public Policy, specialising in the economic impacts of political devolution in the UK.

Having previously worked in financial services he is now based with NERI in Belfast.

Northern Ireland Discretionary Income to fall by 20%

Posted on October 21, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

Discretionary income is the income that households have left over after taxes and spending on essential household necessities like accommodation, food and fuel. The report therefore captures the falling income in Northern Ireland and the rising cost of living. In Particular over the last five years the cost of essentials rose by 16.6% while gross incomes only grew by 12.0% leaving working people …

Posted in: Government SpendingIncomeInequalityNorthern Ireland

Once again, Unemployment not the full picture

Posted on October 16, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

Figures released today showed a further drop in unemployment of 5,000 in Northern Ireland over the last three months, bringing the unemployment rate down to 7.3% as opposed to 7.7% for the UK as a whole. While some may take comfort from these figures, as this blog has pointed out before, the full suite of labour market indicators need to be taken into account. Once again the drop in unemployment …

Posted in: JobsNorthern Ireland

A broader view of labour market statistics in Northern Ireland

Posted on August 14, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

The unemployment rate in Northern Ireland fell below that of the UK for the 3 months to the end of June this year. This is welcome news, but as with all economic and labour market data, a quick glance never reveals the true story. While the numbers unemployed fell by 6,000, the numbers employed only increased by 4,000 which on the face of it would lead you to believe that 2,000 people had …

Posted in: JobsNorthern Ireland

Positive growth, but no cause for celebration

Posted on July 26, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

GDP
The UK economy posted its second quarter of positive growth yesterday, and many have heralded the beginning of a long awaited recovery. However, while some growth is better than none, some perspective is needed before one starts popping champagne corks. Firstly, 0.6% can hardly be describes as robust growth. Indeed, as many have pointed out, the last time the economy grew by 0.6% it was followed …

Posted in: MacroeconomicsNorthern Ireland

Revisions to UK GDP growth

Posted on June 28, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

The ONS yesterday released the third estimate of GDP figures for the first quarter of 2013 where growth was revised down from 0.6% to 0.3%. The revisions to recent historical data also erased the "double-dip" recession that was thought to have occurred in in the first quarter of 2012. Growth in 2012 Q1 was revised up from -0.1% to 0.0%, a stagnation as opposed to contraction. The ONS …

Posted in: JobsMacroeconomicsNorthern Ireland

Changing Reasons for Economic Inactivity

Posted on June 16, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

InActivity
Northern Ireland has historically always had a higher rate of economic inactivity than either the Republic of Ireland or any of the other 11 regions of the United Kingdom. While the overall rate of economic inactivity has actually reduced somewhat over the crisis from 2008, it still remains above all other regions. There is a distinction within the economically inactive between those who do not …

Posted in: JobsNorthern Ireland

Employment increases, incomes squeezed

Posted on June 12, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

Employment figures for the UK published today show a small return to growth in employment in the last three months to April this year. The increase in employment has been mainly due to a large increase in employment among older workers, many of pension age, and it is not clear whether this is by choice or whether older workers are finding themselves under financial pressure.   However the …

Posted in: IncomeJobsLabour costsNorthern Ireland

The Productivity Puzzle and Northern Ireland

Posted on June 10, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

InBrief June 2013
Over the last two years, the UK economy has experienced stagnating output growth alongside increasing total employment. This counter-intuitive situation has come to be known as the "Productivity Puzzle". Northern Ireland has experienced a similar dynamic over the last two years. There is no agreement among researchers as to what may be causing this situation or whether it is a permanent …

Posted in: MacroeconomicsNorthern Ireland

Northern Ireland still lags behind UK on Earnings

Posted on April 22, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

QEF April
The Distribution of earnings has remained remarkably static in Northern Ireland over the past two years. The number of people earning under £20,000 was 57%, the same figure recorded in the previous year. The most significant decreases have been among those earning over £150,000 and those earning over £200,000. Both these groups have halved in the last year. While the decrease in the number of …

Youth Unemployment remains a significant problem for Northern Ireland Economy

Posted on April 10, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

Stormont-Etrusia UK
The Nevin Economic Research Institute has published our latest Quarterly Economic Observer (Wednesday 10th April). In it we examine the problems of Youth Unemployment in Northern Ireland. In particular: •Youth Unemployment rates of 23.8% or 24,000; •34,000 18-24 year olds are not in education training or employment; •The number of young people claiming Job Seekers Allowance for more than 12 …

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