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Posts from "Paul Mac Flynn"

Paul Mac Flynn

Paul Mac Flynn is a senior economist at the NERI specialising in the Northern Ireland Economy.

He is a graduate of University College Dublin with a BA in Economics and Politics and the University of Bristol with an MSc in Economics and Public Policy, specialising in the economic impacts of political devolution in the UK.

Having previously worked in financial services he is now based with NERI in Belfast.

Productivity a danger for UK and NI

Posted on July 16, 2014 by Paul Mac Flynn

There were conflicting messages in the statistics released today on the Northern Ireland economy and labour market. On the labour market side, both measures of unemployment have fallen significantly for the three months from March to May of this year. The claimant count (literally a count of those receiving unemployment benefits) shows a consistent decrease over the last 18 months. However a …

Posted in: JobsNorthern Ireland Wages

Three charts to bear in mind

Posted on April 29, 2014 by Paul Mac Flynn

Today's UK GDP figures showed continuing growth of 0.8% in the first quarter of 2014. Growth was mainly due to the UK's large service sector but there was also welcome if not belated growth in manufacturing. Year on year growth is now calculated to be averaging at about 3%, well above most other developed economies. While growth is welcome, if the experience of the last number of years has taught …

Posted in: MacroeconomicsNorthern Ireland

Mixed signals from the NI Labour Market

Posted on April 16, 2014 by Paul Mac Flynn

As with buses, in Northern Ireland you wait and wait for economic statistics and then two come at once. Today the figures for the Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index were released. The NICEI is the latest attempt by statisticians to come up with a figure for economic growth in Northern Ireland. Today we learnt that in the final quarter of 2013 growth was +0.6%, marginally below the +0.7% …

Posted in: JobsNorthern Ireland

1 in 4 Northern Ireland workers do not earn enough for a decent standard of living

Posted on March 24, 2014 by Paul Mac Flynn

The Nevin Economic Research Institutel published its latest Quarterly Economic Observer today Tuesday 25th March. In it, we examine the extent of low pay across Northern Ireland: 25% of workers earn less than the 'Living Wage' (169,000). 17% are officially classified as low paid (115,000) and 9% (61,000) earn only the National Minimum Wage or less. Young people, women and those in part-time work …

Posted in: InequalityJobsLiving wageNorthern Ireland Wages

A Budget for the few

Posted on March 19, 2014 by Paul Mac Flynn

Budget 2014 announced some interesting measures for pensioners and savers but overall the economic strategy remains as it was. Government fiscal policy remains committed to reductions in government expenditure extending to the end of the decade despite serious concerns over the sustainability of the current 'recovery'. On the overall macroeconomic position, the OBR revised up figures for growth …

Posted in: Government SpendingInequalityInvestmentMacroeconomicsNorthern Ireland TaxationWages

Youth Unemployment: A problem that is not going away

Posted on February 26, 2014 by Paul Mac Flynn

Youth Unemployment is an issue that is affecting nearly every developed country across the western world. While some labour market and output indicators may show some signs of recovery, youth unemployment is a reminder that the greatest recession to hit the developed world since the great depression has left some wounds that won't heal. While many countries experienced high levels of youth …

Posted in: JobsNorthern Ireland

50p tax rate would affect less than 2000 earners in Northern Ireland

Posted on January 27, 2014 by Paul Mac Flynn

Much has been made of the announcement yesterday by the Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls MP that a Labour government would reintroduce a 50% tax on incomes over £150,000. The motivation of this policy is to reduce the deficit, and taxing higher incomes is clearly far preferable than withdrawing even more state benefits from some of the most vulnerable in our society.   The government claim that the …

Posted in: InequalityNorthern Ireland Taxation

Growth in Northern Ireland not what it seems

Posted on December 12, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

The latest figures for Gross Value Added in Northern Ireland were released yesterday by the Office for National Statistics. Gross Value Added is the closest measure to Gross Domestic Product we have for Northern Ireland, it is equal to Gross Domestic Product plus subsidies and minus indirect taxes. However it is derived from the calculation of National Accounts for the United Kingdom and as such …

Posted in: MacroeconomicsNorthern Ireland

UK Autumn Statement fails to tackle underlying problems

Posted on December 05, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

In the Autumn Statement today the Office for Budget Responsibility has upgraded forecasts for growth in the UK economy from 0.6% to 1.4% for 2013. Furthermore they have upgraded forecasts for 2014 and 2015 to 2.4% and 2.2% respectively. While much attention has focused on the speed of the UK recovery, the composition of any such recovery matters just as much. The first point to make is that while …

Posted in: Government SpendingJobsMacroeconomicsNorthern Ireland Taxation

Northern Ireland Discretionary Income to fall by 20%

Posted on October 21, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

Discretionary income is the income that households have left over after taxes and spending on essential household necessities like accommodation, food and fuel. The report therefore captures the falling income in Northern Ireland and the rising cost of living. In Particular over the last five years the cost of essentials rose by 16.6% while gross incomes only grew by 12.0% leaving working people …

Posted in: Government SpendingIncomeInequalityNorthern Ireland

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