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Posts from "Paul Mac Flynn"

Paul Mac Flynn

Paul Mac Flynn is a senior economist at the NERI specialising in the Northern Ireland Economy.

He is a graduate of University College Dublin with a BA in Economics and Politics and the University of Bristol with an MSc in Economics and Public Policy, specialising in the economic impacts of political devolution in the UK.

Having previously worked in financial services he is now based with NERI in Belfast.

Youth Unemployment: A problem that is not going away

Posted on February 26, 2014 by Paul Mac Flynn

Youth Unemployment is an issue that is affecting nearly every developed country across the western world. While some labour market and output indicators may show some signs of recovery, youth unemployment is a reminder that the greatest recession to hit the developed world since the great depression has left some wounds that won't heal. While many countries experienced high levels of youth …

Posted in: JobsNorthern Ireland

50p tax rate would affect less than 2000 earners in Northern Ireland

Posted on January 27, 2014 by Paul Mac Flynn

Much has been made of the announcement yesterday by the Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls MP that a Labour government would reintroduce a 50% tax on incomes over £150,000. The motivation of this policy is to reduce the deficit, and taxing higher incomes is clearly far preferable than withdrawing even more state benefits from some of the most vulnerable in our society.   The government claim that the …

Posted in: InequalityNorthern Ireland Taxation

Growth in Northern Ireland not what it seems

Posted on December 12, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

The latest figures for Gross Value Added in Northern Ireland were released yesterday by the Office for National Statistics. Gross Value Added is the closest measure to Gross Domestic Product we have for Northern Ireland, it is equal to Gross Domestic Product plus subsidies and minus indirect taxes. However it is derived from the calculation of National Accounts for the United Kingdom and as such …

Posted in: MacroeconomicsNorthern Ireland

UK Autumn Statement fails to tackle underlying problems

Posted on December 05, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

In the Autumn Statement today the Office for Budget Responsibility has upgraded forecasts for growth in the UK economy from 0.6% to 1.4% for 2013. Furthermore they have upgraded forecasts for 2014 and 2015 to 2.4% and 2.2% respectively. While much attention has focused on the speed of the UK recovery, the composition of any such recovery matters just as much. The first point to make is that while …

Posted in: Government SpendingJobsMacroeconomicsNorthern Ireland Taxation

Northern Ireland Discretionary Income to fall by 20%

Posted on October 21, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

Discretionary income is the income that households have left over after taxes and spending on essential household necessities like accommodation, food and fuel. The report therefore captures the falling income in Northern Ireland and the rising cost of living. In Particular over the last five years the cost of essentials rose by 16.6% while gross incomes only grew by 12.0% leaving working people …

Posted in: Government SpendingIncomeInequalityNorthern Ireland

Once again, Unemployment not the full picture

Posted on October 16, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

Figures released today showed a further drop in unemployment of 5,000 in Northern Ireland over the last three months, bringing the unemployment rate down to 7.3% as opposed to 7.7% for the UK as a whole. While some may take comfort from these figures, as this blog has pointed out before, the full suite of labour market indicators need to be taken into account. Once again the drop in unemployment …

Posted in: JobsNorthern Ireland

A broader view of labour market statistics in Northern Ireland

Posted on August 14, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

The unemployment rate in Northern Ireland fell below that of the UK for the 3 months to the end of June this year. This is welcome news, but as with all economic and labour market data, a quick glance never reveals the true story. While the numbers unemployed fell by 6,000, the numbers employed only increased by 4,000 which on the face of it would lead you to believe that 2,000 people had …

Posted in: JobsNorthern Ireland

Positive growth, but no cause for celebration

Posted on July 26, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

GDP
The UK economy posted its second quarter of positive growth yesterday, and many have heralded the beginning of a long awaited recovery. However, while some growth is better than none, some perspective is needed before one starts popping champagne corks. Firstly, 0.6% can hardly be describes as robust growth. Indeed, as many have pointed out, the last time the economy grew by 0.6% it was followed …

Posted in: MacroeconomicsNorthern Ireland

Revisions to UK GDP growth

Posted on June 28, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

The ONS yesterday released the third estimate of GDP figures for the first quarter of 2013 where growth was revised down from 0.6% to 0.3%. The revisions to recent historical data also erased the "double-dip" recession that was thought to have occurred in in the first quarter of 2012. Growth in 2012 Q1 was revised up from -0.1% to 0.0%, a stagnation as opposed to contraction. The ONS …

Posted in: JobsMacroeconomicsNorthern Ireland

Changing Reasons for Economic Inactivity

Posted on June 16, 2013 by Paul Mac Flynn

InActivity
Northern Ireland has historically always had a higher rate of economic inactivity than either the Republic of Ireland or any of the other 11 regions of the United Kingdom. While the overall rate of economic inactivity has actually reduced somewhat over the crisis from 2008, it still remains above all other regions. There is a distinction within the economically inactive between those who do not …

Posted in: JobsNorthern Ireland

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