Posts from "Paul Mac Flynn"

Paul Mac Flynn

Paul Mac Flynn is a senior economist at the NERI specialising in the Northern Ireland Economy.

He is a graduate of University College Dublin with a BA in Economics and Politics and the University of Bristol with an MSc in Economics and Public Policy, specialising in the economic impacts of political devolution in the UK.

Having previously worked in financial services he is now based with NERI in Belfast.

Where now for employment growth in Northern Ireland

Posted on February 19, 2015 by Paul Mac Flynn

The construction sector in Northern Ireland saw the largest fall in employment across the economy. Even now, over six years since the property crash there are still 30% fewer jobs in the sector than there were in 2008. Many of the jobs in the construction sector would have been mid-level skilled positions that commanded decent wages and formed the backbone of employment in many communities.   …

Posted in: JobsNorthern Ireland

Low Pay in Northern Ireland in 2014

Posted on January 28, 2015 by Paul Mac Flynn

In March of last year the NERI's Spring Quarterly Economic Observer analysed earnings and low pay across Northern Ireland. We highlighted the gender, age and geographical breakdown of low pay and the implications of these statistics for policymakers. In December of last year the latest figures from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings were released and they painted a bleak picture for pay in …

Posted in: Living wageNorthern Ireland Wages

UK recovery still unbalanced and unstable

Posted on December 03, 2014 by Paul Mac Flynn

Chancellor George Osborne's Autumn Statement contained few new announcements and some decidedly grim long-term trends for the UK economy. There were further details given on pre-announced infrastructural spending on house building, roads and rail in addition to earmarked funding for established science and research. The chancellor also outlined a major reform to the way stamp duty is levied in …

Posted in: Government SpendingMacroeconomicsNorthern Ireland TaxationWages

Employment up, but wages ominous

Posted on August 13, 2014 by Paul Mac Flynn

UK Labour Market data released this morning show that the trend of rising employment and falling real wages is set to continue. At a UK-wide level, the decreases in unemployment are quite impressive, particularly for youth unemployment but figures for earnings at GB level paint a more sober picture. Regular pay in Great Britain was only up 0.6% from this time last year and with inflation running …

Posted in: JobsNorthern Ireland Wages

Hours and Earnings in the Northern Ireland Labour Market

Posted on July 29, 2014 by Paul Mac Flynn

As noted in this blog last week, there has been a significant recovery in the labour market for both Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. However it was also noted that the pace of recovery in the labour market has not so far been reflected in economic growth. While UK economic growth is now reaching 3% per year, the economy has only just returned to its pre-crisis peak and it is …

Posted in: Northern Ireland Wages

Productivity a danger for UK and NI

Posted on July 16, 2014 by Paul Mac Flynn

There were conflicting messages in the statistics released today on the Northern Ireland economy and labour market. On the labour market side, both measures of unemployment have fallen significantly for the three months from March to May of this year. The claimant count (literally a count of those receiving unemployment benefits) shows a consistent decrease over the last 18 months. However a …

Posted in: JobsNorthern Ireland Wages

Three charts to bear in mind

Posted on April 29, 2014 by Paul Mac Flynn

Today's UK GDP figures showed continuing growth of 0.8% in the first quarter of 2014. Growth was mainly due to the UK's large service sector but there was also welcome if not belated growth in manufacturing. Year on year growth is now calculated to be averaging at about 3%, well above most other developed economies. While growth is welcome, if the experience of the last number of years has taught …

Posted in: MacroeconomicsNorthern Ireland

Mixed signals from the NI Labour Market

Posted on April 16, 2014 by Paul Mac Flynn

As with buses, in Northern Ireland you wait and wait for economic statistics and then two come at once. Today the figures for the Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index were released. The NICEI is the latest attempt by statisticians to come up with a figure for economic growth in Northern Ireland. Today we learnt that in the final quarter of 2013 growth was +0.6%, marginally below the +0.7% …

Posted in: JobsNorthern Ireland

1 in 4 Northern Ireland workers do not earn enough for a decent standard of living

Posted on March 24, 2014 by Paul Mac Flynn

The Nevin Economic Research Institutel published its latest Quarterly Economic Observer today Tuesday 25th March. In it, we examine the extent of low pay across Northern Ireland: 25% of workers earn less than the 'Living Wage' (169,000). 17% are officially classified as low paid (115,000) and 9% (61,000) earn only the National Minimum Wage or less. Young people, women and those in part-time work …

Posted in: InequalityJobsLiving wageNorthern Ireland Wages

A Budget for the few

Posted on March 19, 2014 by Paul Mac Flynn

Budget 2014 announced some interesting measures for pensioners and savers but overall the economic strategy remains as it was. Government fiscal policy remains committed to reductions in government expenditure extending to the end of the decade despite serious concerns over the sustainability of the current 'recovery'. On the overall macroeconomic position, the OBR revised up figures for growth …

Posted in: Government SpendingInequalityInvestmentMacroeconomicsNorthern Ireland TaxationWages

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