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Posts from "Paul Mac Flynn"

Paul Mac Flynn

Paul Mac Flynn is a senior economist at the NERI specialising in the Northern Ireland Economy.

He is a graduate of University College Dublin with a BA in Economics and Politics and the University of Bristol with an MSc in Economics and Public Policy, specialising in the economic impacts of political devolution in the UK.

Having previously worked in financial services he is now based with NERI in Belfast.

UK Autumn Statement and Spending Review

Posted on November 25, 2015 by Paul Mac Flynn

The Autumn Statement delivered today by Chancellor of The Exchequer George Osborne will in all likelihood be remembered for one significant U-turn. The dramatic reversal on planned changes to tax credits represents a big win for opponents of the policy in Westminster and beyond. The total proposed saving from tax credits was to be £4.4bn UK wide. The changes would have affected over 120,000 …

Posted in: Government SpendingJobsLiving wageMacroeconomics

Youth Unemployment - A broader view

Posted on October 29, 2015 by Paul Mac Flynn

Youth unemployment remains one of the most enduring and destructive legacies of the financial crash and the great recession that followed it. Rates of unemployment among young people (those aged under 25) increased dramatically over the 2007 - 2009 period. The NERI's Quarterly Economic Facts indicator 2.4 shows youth unemployment rates across the 28 members of the EU and the contrasting fortunes …

Posted in: JobsNorthern Ireland

Underemployment in Northern Ireland

Posted on August 19, 2015 by Paul Mac Flynn

Publication cover - Quarterly Economic Observer, Summer2015
In June of this year the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency released a paper on the subject of underemploymentent in Northern Ireland. Underemploymnet has become a key policy issue of late due to improving conditions in the labour market. As the paper sets out, underemployment is defined as "A person who is in employment, working less than 48 hours per week, would like to work …

Posted in: JobsNorthern Ireland

Some context to Welfare Spending

Posted on July 21, 2015 by Paul Mac Flynn

An article appeared in this morning's Belfast Telegraph outlining expenditure on some welfare benefits in Northern Ireland for the latest financial year. The figures were obtained in response to a parliamentary question to the Minister for Social Development and can be found here . The article made a number of claims about where expenditure has increased and then went on to quote some rather …

Posted in: Government SpendingNorthern Ireland

Austerity in Northern Ireland. Where are we and where are we going?

Posted on May 06, 2015 by Paul Mac Flynn

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How did we get here? The Agreement reached by Northern Ireland's political parties at Stormont House last year covered many topics from parades and the past to political reform and shared education. The agreement has now seemingly come unstuck over the issue of welfare reform. Welfare reform was arguably the most intractable of issues supposedly dealt with by the Stormont House Agreement and the …

Posted in: Government SpendingMacroeconomicsNorthern Ireland

Where now for employment growth in Northern Ireland

Posted on February 19, 2015 by Paul Mac Flynn

The construction sector in Northern Ireland saw the largest fall in employment across the economy. Even now, over six years since the property crash there are still 30% fewer jobs in the sector than there were in 2008. Many of the jobs in the construction sector would have been mid-level skilled positions that commanded decent wages and formed the backbone of employment in many communities.   …

Posted in: JobsNorthern Ireland

Low Pay in Northern Ireland in 2014

Posted on January 28, 2015 by Paul Mac Flynn

In March of last year the NERI's Spring Quarterly Economic Observer analysed earnings and low pay across Northern Ireland. We highlighted the gender, age and geographical breakdown of low pay and the implications of these statistics for policymakers. In December of last year the latest figures from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings were released and they painted a bleak picture for pay in …

Posted in: Living wageNorthern Ireland Wages

UK recovery still unbalanced and unstable

Posted on December 03, 2014 by Paul Mac Flynn

Paul
Chancellor George Osborne's Autumn Statement contained few new announcements and some decidedly grim long-term trends for the UK economy. There were further details given on pre-announced infrastructural spending on house building, roads and rail in addition to earmarked funding for established science and research. The chancellor also outlined a major reform to the way stamp duty is levied in …

Posted in: Government SpendingMacroeconomicsNorthern Ireland TaxationWages

Employment up, but wages ominous

Posted on August 13, 2014 by Paul Mac Flynn

UK Labour Market data released this morning show that the trend of rising employment and falling real wages is set to continue. At a UK-wide level, the decreases in unemployment are quite impressive, particularly for youth unemployment but figures for earnings at GB level paint a more sober picture. Regular pay in Great Britain was only up 0.6% from this time last year and with inflation running …

Posted in: JobsNorthern Ireland Wages

Hours and Earnings in the Northern Ireland Labour Market

Posted on July 29, 2014 by Paul Mac Flynn

As noted in this blog last week, there has been a significant recovery in the labour market for both Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. However it was also noted that the pace of recovery in the labour market has not so far been reflected in economic growth. While UK economic growth is now reaching 3% per year, the economy has only just returned to its pre-crisis peak and it is …

Posted in: Northern Ireland Wages

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