Posts from "Paul Mac Flynn"

Paul Mac Flynn

Paul Mac Flynn is a senior economist at the NERI specialising in the Northern Ireland Economy.

He is a graduate of University College Dublin with a BA in Economics and Politics and the University of Bristol with an MSc in Economics and Public Policy, specialising in the economic impacts of political devolution in the UK.

Having previously worked in financial services he is now based with NERI in Belfast.

An unlikely end to low pay

Posted on October 30, 2019 by Paul Mac Flynn

The latest round of pay statistics for Northern Ireland, the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings was published yesterday. Looking at the headline statistics there are some positives, full-time weekly earnings were up 3.2% from 2018 or 1.2% when adjusted for inflation. On both counts this was marginally above the rate of increase for the UK as a whole and is the 5th consecutive year of wage growth …

Local impact of Wrightbus closure cannot be ignored

Posted on October 01, 2019 by Paul Mac Flynn

The announcement last week that Wrightbus has gone into administration with the loss of up to 1,200 jobs has dealt a significant blow to Northern Ireland’s manufacturing sector at a time when the sector faces an existential threat. Furthermore, it is just the latest in a long series of closures to hit the Ballymena area, which seems to have suffered disproportionately in recent years. When we …

Inflation and the pound - the rise and fall.

Posted on August 19, 2019 by Paul Mac Flynn

As the prospect of a no-deal Brexit looms, much attention has focused on how the UK economy will react to life outside the EU on the first of November. While there are likely to be some immediate impacts on day one arising from border delays and turbulence in the financial markets, it would be unwise to expect any sort of ‘big bang’ event. In reality the real economic impact of a no-deal …

Posted in: Northern Ireland

Out on our own? A sensible approach to fiscal transfers

Posted on June 05, 2019 by Paul Mac Flynn

Last week the Office for National Statistics released what they call the Country and regional public sector finances net fiscal balance tables. Whilst the name of these publication may not immediately induce interest or excitement, the information contained within them is most important. There is one figure in this report that is used by politicians in Northern Ireland more than almost any other …

Are we there yet?

Posted on April 30, 2019 by Paul Mac Flynn

By any measure, we are a decade into the recovery that followed the great financial crash. Every month there is a release of statistics pertaining to economic output, the labour market or exports. Every month we tend to look at these numbers over the last 10 years and ask ourselves the question - are we there yet? In the second quarter of 2009, the UK economy finally began to grow again, …

The New Normal?

Posted on March 25, 2019 by Paul Mac Flynn

On the surface, the most recent release of labour market figures paints a very positive picture for Northern Ireland. Unemployment is low and employment is at an all-time high. Economic inactivity remains a serious structural problem for Northern Ireland, however the problem does appear to be slowly improving or at the very least it has stopped becoming worse. There is a consistent gap between …

Industrial Stategy - It's all in the game

Posted on January 23, 2019 by Paul Mac Flynn

Foreign Direct Investment is something we talk a lot about in Northern Ireland. In terms of the industrial development we actually talk about little else. Getting big multinational firms to invest in Northern Ireland is seen as one of the key avenues to lifting our growth rate and becoming a successful regional economy. Nearly every economy, developing and developed, has some programme to attract …

Slides from NERI Seminar Belfast: Rebalancing and Regional Economic Performances: Northern Ireland in a Nordic Mirror

Posted on November 16, 2018 by Paul Mac Flynn

Slides from NERI Seminar Belfast: Rebalancing and Regional Economic Performances: Northern Ireland in a Nordic Mirror presented by Dr Esmond Birnie, Ulster University and Dr Graham Brownlow, Queen's University Belfast on 15th November, 2018.  

Immigration and low pay

Posted on November 08, 2018 by Paul Mac Flynn

Over the last number of weeks there has been increasing discussion over what the United Kingdom’s immigration policy will be once it leaves the European Union. Despite playing a disproportionately large role in the debate at the time of the referendum, the issue of immigration has since taken a back seat to the more mundane technicalities and mechanics of trade policy. What we do know is that …

The End of Austerity?

Posted on October 26, 2018 by Paul Mac Flynn

The UK Budget for 2019/20 will be unveiled later today by Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond. While nearly all recent discussion and debate at Westminster has been consumed by Brexit, the political context for this budget is quite different. Obviously, it will be almost impossible to avoid the issue of Brexit completely. The forecasts for economic growth and the public finances will be …

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